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Personal Finance

Free tool

MRR Churn Simulator

Monte Carlo fan chart of subscription MRR under monthly churn and noisy new bookings — ending percentiles and chance of finishing below start.

  1. 1Fill inputs
  2. 2Run
  3. 3Copy / export

Inputs

Results

MRR paths under churn

Monte Carlo fan chart of ending MRR given churn and noisy new bookings.

How it works

From inputs to a decision

Monte Carlo fan chart of subscription MRR under monthly churn and noisy new bookings — ending percentiles and chance of finishing below start.

  1. 01

    Enter starting MRR, churn, and new MRR per month.

  2. 02

    Set volatility, horizon, and simulations.

  3. 03

    Inspect p10/p50/p90 paths and export CSV.

Tips for better results

  • High churn with flat new MRR almost always trends down — raise adds or cut churn first.
  • Use after-tax numbers when comparing job vs side income.
  • Monte Carlo outputs are probabilities, not guarantees.

Frequently asked questions

How does this differ from the FIRE simulator?
This models subscription MRR paths; FIRE/runway models personal or startup capital under spend and returns.

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